Monday, 12 August 2013

The U.S. LoDI National Index Continues its Upward Surge

The University of Louisville LoDI National Index increased to 58.86 in August, up from 57.60 in July and 50.36 in August last year. This represented a 29.7% (annualised) increase on July, following a 305.3% increase the prior month. 

Compared to the same month last year, the index for August increased 16.9%, up from the 14.2% year on year growth reported for July. 

As the LoDI index is relatively new (since May 2008), it's predictive powers is yet to be established. However, as the index is "designed to predict upcoming changes in the level of logistics and distribution activity in the US" (see notes below), an hence an indicator of overall economic activity in the U.S., the significant increases in the index during the last two months should perhaps not be brushed aside. 


Notes:
The index value ranges between 1 and 100. A value higher than 50 indicates healthy economic activity.

The LoDI Index uses linear regression analysis to combine cargo volume data from rail, barge, air, and truck transit, along with various economic factors. The resulting indicator is designed to predict upcoming changes in the level of logistics and distribution activity in the US and is represented by a value between 1 and 100. An index at or above 50 represents a healthy level of activity in the industry.

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