Saturday, 23 November 2013

The Short Version of the "Austrian" True Money Supply (TMS), as of 11 November 2013

The short version of the Austrian True Money Supply (SVTMS) for the U.S. decreased by 0.18% (-9.06% annualised) during the most recent week ending 11 November to reach USD 9.7362 trillion calculated based on monetary statistics just released by FRED

Compared to the same week last year, the money supply expanded by 7.80%, up from the 7.62% increase reported last week. The 1-year growth rate is however 1.66 percentage point lower than it was 26 weeks ago and 2.59 percentage point lower than it was one year ago. 

All the various growth rates in the table below, except the 5- and 20-year growth rates, are lower than they were one year ago. U.S. stock market investors should worry about the S&P 500 index having increased 30.59% compared to the same period last year while the money supply has only increased 7.80%. Furthermore, the fact that the S&P 500 index growth rate is heading up while the growth rate in the money supply is heading down, could very well indicate that the stock market bull run will soon run out of gas.