Friday, 28 February 2014

The Short Version of the "Austrian" True Money Supply (TMS), as of 17 February 2014

The short version of the Austrian True Money Supply (SVTMS) for the U.S. increased by 0.49% (29.25% annualised) during the most recent week ending 17 February 2014 to reach US$ 9.9541 trillion calculated from the most recent monetary statistics published by the Federal Reserve. 

So far this year, the money supply has increased 0.65%, an annualised growth rate of 4.95%. This compares to the 6.48% growth in 2013 and the 7.89% average yearly growth rate for the 1981 to 2013 period. Go here for historical data for every year since 1981.

The 1-year growth rate in the money supply picked up this week and the 8.49% growth was the highest recorded for 17 weeks. The growth rate however remains lower than it was a year ago, but the 1.37 percentage point decline on last year was the lowest recorded for the previous 25 weeks.

Excluding the shorter term growth rates (1- to 13-weeks) as these fluctuates widely, all growth rates except for the 7- and 20-year remain lower than they were one year ago. The overall growth rate in the money supply therefore continues to decline and hence continues to remain an inherent and significant risk for US equity and bond investors with long positions.