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Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Was Gundlach Spot On?

On the question "What would be a harbinger for the market’s mood turning around?" Jeff Gundlach answered as follows in an interview published on 17 January a couple of weeks ago (here),
The thing that I am most fascinated with – and I have done nothing with it – is Amazon. I just can’t get over how little money they make and yet how valuable the company is. The stock price never goes down. It just goes up and up and up and they never make any money. Investors are so patient with Amazon because they think it’s all going to happen. They’re constantly investing in a company that makes no money and hope that one day it will pay off. That’s their bet. I’m surprised that it has been sixteen plus years and they’re still willing to wait. As long as Amazon keeps going up, market confidence and belief in the future is in high season. If it starts going down, it means the patience has run out. And that probably means the patience has run out for the market in general.
Since then, the Amazon share has tumbled more than 12.6% and the S&P 500 index is down by almost 5% at time of writing. Maybe Gundlach was, and is, on to something.

Related: The Fed has Created Yet Another U.S. Stock Market Bubble