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Wednesday, 1 October 2014

The U.S. Stock Market Risk Indicator, September 2014

The U.S. stock market risk indicator for September declined slightly from the August all-time high. This slight decline was largely driven by a declining stock market and a money supply growth rate which declined at a slower pace than it did in August.

At the current reading of 117.53, the indicator is 76.0% higher than the average since 1986, 17.2% higher than the previous peak from January 2006 and 5.1% higher than August 2000.

As the changes since August were marginal, the indicator continues to signal that future stock market returns will be very poor at best.