Friday, 7 April 2017

A Mini-Crash in the Money Supply Growth Rate

On a rolling 13-week basis, the money supply this week declined for the 7th consecutive week.

The year on year growth rate dropped further, also for the 7th week in a row, from 5.9% last week to 5.5% this week. The last time the growth rate dropped to these levels was around the time of the September 2008 banking crisis. The current growth rate is still substantial by any prudent standard, but it is nonetheless low in a historical perspective as it has averaged 8.9% since 1987. The growth rate has now dropped 34%, or 2.8 percentage points, from the April 2013 to December 2016 average.

Though the recent trend naturally can reverse, the large drops in the above growth rates are not all that common and are often associated with brewing economic problems (more specifically, the uncovering of such problems).

Following a longer period of unprecedented stability in the y/y growth rate, the standard deviation has picked up substantially in recent months.

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